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Perspectives Newsletter: Q2, 2019
The momentum of the first quarter carried over into the second, with the S&P 500 returning 3.9% in April. As optimism over a potential trade deal with China gave way to fears of increased tariffs and a further ratcheting up of the trade war, the market cracked - falling -6.6% in May. A pledge to return to the bargaining table plus indications that the Fed was preparing to cut rates then managed to turn the market around. When the dust settled, the S&P recorded its best June since 1955 and the market saw the best first half returns in 22 years. Leadership seesawed throughout the quarter. In April and June, when trade tensions eased and the consequent expectations for global growth improved, value outperformed growth and smaller capitalization stocks did as well as or better than large cap. Overall, however, investors continued to seek relative safety in US large cap companies with reliable growth prospects. Trade issues continued to have an outsized effect on both developed and emerging international stocks, as those economies are more dependent on international trade than the US.
