Perspectives Newsletter: Q2, 2018
The second quarter got off to a most inauspicious start when, on the first trading day of April, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 442 trading days, the 6th longest streak in history. Domestic markets then rebounded to post gains in each month of the quarter, ending positive for the year. Even with the rebound, large cap stocks were stuck in a trading range as the opposing forces of a strong US economy and heightened trade tensions worked against each other. The biggest beneficiary of the strong domestic economy argument were small cap stocks, which easily outpaced their large and midcap peers by an even wider margin than what was seen in the first quarter. Growth stocks continued their dominance over value that began in early 2017. Fears of slowing global growth, potential for a trade war and the strains of a rising dollar all favored the relatively lower risk of US equities vs. foreign. Emerging economy markets were especially hard hit because they are more likely to feel the stress of an appreciating dollar and are generally more reliant on exports.
