Perspectives Newsletter: Q4, 2019
Coming on the heels of a miserable 2018, where no major asset class managed to beat inflation, the 2019 outlook for both the market and the economy were dour. A year later the economy had stabilized, multiple major uncertainties were resolved positively, and each major asset class bested inflation. By the end of 2019, the US economic expansion had become the longest on record and the S&P 500 boasted a total return of 498.5% from the March 9th, 2009 bottom. Looking more closely at the quarter itself, all major stock indices recorded strong gains. Leading the way higher were Emerging Market equities, buoyed by a first step in resolving the trade dispute between the US and China and signs of improving global economic growth. While EM stocks still lagged for the year, their outperformance in the quarter - and especially December - were notable. Domestically, the outperformance of value witnessed at the end of the third quarter did not carry over with growth stocks again finishing ahead of value. In line with the greater “risk-on” nature of the final quarter of 2019, small cap stocks rallied, though still finished the year well behind large and midcap indices.
