Perspectives Newsletter: Q4, 2020
At the beginning of the year, the United States was enjoying the longest expansion on record. The economy seemed poised to continue its run with the signing of trade deals with Mexico, Canada and China. Donald Trump held comfortable leads in most polls and markets were breaking to new highs. By the end of the first quarter the Covid-19 virus had plunged the US economy into recession and ushered in the fastest bear market with the S&P 500 ultimately declining 34%. Unprecedented monetary and fiscal response saw 5 different relief packages, the largest non-war stimulus in US history, the Fed balance sheet expanding by 70% in just 2 months, record low interest rates and the fastest recovery from a bear market ever. In the final quarter of the year alone we saw the introduction of two vaccines for Covid-19, developed in one tenth of the normal time, a new President elected and a surprise election outcome in Georgia, leaving the Federal government entirely in Democrats’ control, though by the slimmest of margins. The fourth quarter also witnessed a changing of the guard in stock leadership with international, especially emerging markets, value and small cap the stars. There have been many false starts when it comes to leadership change in the past 12 years, but this has the potential to last longer.
