Perspectives Newsletter: Q1, 2018
What a difference a few months make. Through the first 10 trading days of the year the S&P 500 was off to the 9th best start all-time and on an annualized trajectory to triple in value, clearly unsustainable. The month ended with the best January performance in eight years. By the end of March, the S&P had logged its worst first quarter since 2009 and broken a streak of 9 consecutive quarters of positive returns. Volatility returned: there were 23 daily moves of +/-1% or more in the S&P compared to 48 for all of 2016 and just 8 last year. Beneath the surface growth again bested value, though that trend reversed in March. Smaller capitalization stocks were relative winners. Developed international markets were broadly weak and lagged the US indices, while emerging markets outperformed on the back of Brazil’s almost 12% advance.
