Perspectives Newsletter: Q4, 2022
A fourth quarter rally ultimately ended in a December swoon for domestic markets, capping off the worst year for stocks since 2008. Bitcoin again stood out for all the wrong reasons with another quarterly decline bringing the fullyear rout to -65%. Value stocks continued to outpace growth, decisively breaking a multi-year pattern of underperformance. Of particular note, growth stocks were unable to regain leadership in the fourth quarter when longer-dated interest rates fell, inflation looked to have peaked and the US Dollar declined. This environment is usually supportive for growth stocks. Another multi-year trend reversed in 2022 with the superior performance of international stocks vs. the US. Leadership changes often emerge from volatility. Growth has outperformed value for 15 years; the prior cycle was 15 years. US beating international this cycle has lasted 12 years vs. an average of eight years since 1975. There have been several false starts with these potential leadership changes in the last 18 months; this one may be real.
