Perspectives Newsletter: Q3, 2021
A strong second quarter earnings season through July and August was enough to help investors look past mounting concerns. All that changed as the calendar flipped to September and the issues facing the market became too great to ignore. The final month of the quarter saw yields jump higher, questions arise around the investability of China, inflation continue to run hot, supply chain bottlenecks remain unresolved, partisan and intra-party fighting bring legislation to a halt, a hawkish move by the Fed and signs of a slowing economy. Little wonder there was a September swoon. The performance of equities also shifted, resembling what was seen in the first months of the year. As rates rose, cyclical/value stocks had a relative advantage while growth issues saw their relative performance dinged. Outsized gains in July and August still left growth equities ahead of their value peers for the quarter, but the September shift in performance was pronounced. International equities also largely followed US stocks lower in the final month, and for the quarter the S&P 500 easily bested the EAFE and EM indices. Emerging markets were weighed down in particular from the weakness in China, where solvency questions surrounding a major real estate development company led to a spike in mentions of “Lehman Brothers” to end the quarter.
